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ReAKKT: KGHM: hedging copper with the seagull

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/09/kghm-hedging-copper-with-seagull.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Saturday, September 27, 2014. KGHM: hedging copper with the seagull. The 14H1 KGHM report. Mentions a copper hedging strategy called the Seagull. Basically, it hedges part of the revenues. 40,5k tons in H2 vs. 283k tons produced in H1, or less than 15%) against copper prices falling below $7,500 / ton. Since the copper price was approx. $6,800 / ton on Friday, the Seagull was in the air:. Notes: see post about visualizing option strategies. Posted by Maciej Janiec.

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ReAKKT: A first look at the potential arbitrage opportunities in the electricity market

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/06/a-first-look-at-potential-arbitrage.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Saturday, June 21, 2014. A first look at the potential arbitrage opportunities in the electricity market. As previously observed, electricity markets can be strange at times. Especially when there are two (or more) separate markets dealing with virtually the same article. Usually such situation leads to arbitrage opportunities. In case of electricity, we often have the separation of the Day Ahead Market (DAM). When differences between DAM declarations are settled.

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ReAKKT: Eurogeddon - or how NOT to play Black Swans

http://www.reakkt.com/2012/12/eurogeddon-or-how-not-to-play-black.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Saturday, December 22, 2012. Eurogeddon - or how NOT to play Black Swans. Risky bet against ECB. In February this year a new fund aiming at the collapse of the EU was launched. The founders of the fund called Eurogeddon. If the assumed scenario comes true. After some 9 months, the actual fund performance is totally different from what was promised. The fund is 36,4% down since February 22, 2012. And chances of recovering from this drawdown are remote. Recommended Blac...

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ReAKKT: Back-testing value investing

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/09/back-testing-value-investing.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Friday, September 26, 2014. I have been recently playing with a fundamental stock scanner designed for the Polish market - GieldowyRadar. This scanner offers a number of predefined strategies based on some gurus stock selection criteria and allows to back-test them over 7 years. The best back-test results are currently produced by "the Warren Buffett" strategy. The average annual return of this strategy is 29.3% vs. -1.85% for WIG index. The answer is - YES! It is als...

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ReAKKT: Monkey business

http://www.reakkt.com/2013/02/monkey-business.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Thursday, February 28, 2013. Source: http:/ appfinder.lisisoft.com/ipad-iphone-apps/tremolo-picking.html. A few years ago it was suggested that monkeys can beat professional asset managers. At picking stocks to invest in. Even though the result of the experiment conducted by the WSJ in 1988 was not conclusive, the idea disturbed the investment community a little. And an extensive sales network. With that, you are ready to show your true investment incompetence. Find m...

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ReAKKT: How to consistenly lose the money on the stock market?

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/09/how-to-consistenly-lose-money-on-stock.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Monday, September 29, 2014. How to consistenly lose the money on the stock market? I have recently written about back-testing some fundamental investment strategy. Stock scanner for the Polish stock market. The results of the back-test were quite impressive (even if one should not believe in them too much), but can we do the opposite? Can we create a strategy that consistently loses money? YES, we can! My simple "contrarian" strategy uses:. Financial debt / EBITDA 0.

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ReAKKT: Does your asset manager have a substantial stake in the fund he manages?

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/09/does-you-asset-manager-have-substantial.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Sunday, September 28, 2014. Does your asset manager have a substantial stake in the fund he manages? I first wrote about the Eurogeddon. Investment fund - the one betting on the collapse of the European Union - in February 2012. Now it is -62% down. I was nonplussed by the simulations presented by the fund marketing team. The execution strategy employed. Also seemed too much aggressive to me, especially taking into consideration the nature of the bet. Find more about ...

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ReAKKT: Commodity prices and KGHM stock price

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/09/commodity-prices-and-kghm-stock-price.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Thursday, September 25, 2014. Commodity prices and KGHM stock price. The stock price of KGHM. Is falling since the late August. The KGHM moves follow changes in prices of copper and silver - two key KGHM products. Predicting commodity prices may be tricky, so let's focus instead on their past behavior in Q2 and - nearly finished - Q3. Since KGHM reports its results in PLN, we should also take currency into consideration. Black - Q2 prices and average. Wild ideas, my c...

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ReAKKT: Let the wind blow or forecasting the wind power

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/06/let-wind-blow-or-forecasting-wind-power.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Wednesday, June 11, 2014. Let the wind blow or forecasting the wind power. I have mentioned recently, that the production of renewable energy sources. Is difficult to predict. Let's examine some of the challenges. The difference between production and forecast can fluctuate wildly, sometimes exceeding /-50% of the installed wind farm capacity. Chart: differences between production and P50 forecast. P50 forecast is the average expected energy production). The forecast ...

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ReAKKT: Some curiosities of the European power markets

http://www.reakkt.com/2014/06/some-curiosities-of-european-power.html

Looking for attractors in the chaos. Sunday, June 8, 2014. Some curiosities of the European power markets. It should not be a surprise that power markets in Europe are amazingly complex. There are both many different market segments, and rules governing the segments in various countries are often very different. Among the key market segments we have:. Day ahead market (DAM). Where planned electricity deliveries and prices for the next day are set. Futures and derivatives market. Green energy rights market.