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kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Dr Kevin Bonham

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham formerly of Tasmanian Times.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/

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Dr Kevin Bonham | kevinbonham.blogspot.com Reviews
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Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham formerly of Tasmanian Times.
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1 dr kevin bonham
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Dr Kevin Bonham | kevinbonham.blogspot.com Reviews

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham formerly of Tasmanian Times.

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kevinbonham.blogspot.com kevinbonham.blogspot.com
1

Dr Kevin Bonham: August 2015

http://www.kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015_08_01_archive.html

PSEPHOLOGY, POLL WATCHING AND STRAY POLITICAL COMMENTARY/PHILOSOPHY FROM THE HOME OF HARE-CLARK. HEY, MAJOR PARTY POLITICIANS - DONALD TRUMP LOST THE POPULAR VOTE SO WHY ON EARTH SHOULD YOU CHANNEL HIM? COMMON SENSE DOES NOT LIVE HERE. Wednesday, August 26, 2015. Poll Roundup: Behind Longer Than Howard. 2PP Aggregate: 53.1 to ALP (-0.3 in a week) . Labor would comfortably win election held right now. Newspoll stayed at 54. And Essential curiously moved to 51. To Labor, the Newspoll at 54.3. Update added ...

2

Dr Kevin Bonham: Wonk Central: How Should Parties Count Member Ballots For Senate Tickets?

http://www.kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/08/wonk-central-how-should-parties-count.html

PSEPHOLOGY, POLL WATCHING AND STRAY POLITICAL COMMENTARY/PHILOSOPHY FROM THE HOME OF HARE-CLARK. HEY, MAJOR PARTY POLITICIANS - DONALD TRUMP LOST THE POPULAR VOTE SO WHY ON EARTH SHOULD YOU CHANNEL HIM? COMMON SENSE DOES NOT LIVE HERE. Sunday, August 9, 2015. Wonk Central: How Should Parties Count Member Ballots For Senate Tickets? 1 A recent Tasmanian ALP member/delegate ballot for Senate ticket preselections has raised the question of how member ballots for Senate tickets should be best conducted.

3

Dr Kevin Bonham: EMRS: Surprise Slide For Liberals

http://www.kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/08/emrs-surprise-slide-for-liberals.html

PSEPHOLOGY, POLL WATCHING AND STRAY POLITICAL COMMENTARY/PHILOSOPHY FROM THE HOME OF HARE-CLARK. HEY, MAJOR PARTY POLITICIANS - DONALD TRUMP LOST THE POPULAR VOTE SO WHY ON EARTH SHOULD YOU CHANNEL HIM? COMMON SENSE DOES NOT LIVE HERE. Tuesday, August 18, 2015. EMRS: Surprise Slide For Liberals. EMRS: Liberal 40 Labor 29 Green 21 Ind 9. Interpretation (provisional): Liberal 42 Labor 33 Green 18 Other 7. Seat distribution based on poll: Hung parliament (Liberal 11-12 Labor 9-10 Green 4). I repeat the usua...

4

Dr Kevin Bonham: February 2015

http://www.kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015_02_01_archive.html

PSEPHOLOGY, POLL WATCHING AND STRAY POLITICAL COMMENTARY/PHILOSOPHY FROM THE HOME OF HARE-CLARK. HEY, MAJOR PARTY POLITICIANS - DONALD TRUMP LOST THE POPULAR VOTE SO WHY ON EARTH SHOULD YOU CHANNEL HIM? COMMON SENSE DOES NOT LIVE HERE. Saturday, February 28, 2015. New South Wales Roundup: Is Even This A Bridge Too Far? Time to kick off some NSW state election analysis, much of it in broad and general terms.  I havent done the usual seat-modelling yet; that will follow in a week or two. Were released, the...

5

Dr Kevin Bonham: A Same-Sex Marriage Plebiscite Is A Terrible Idea

http://www.kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2015/07/a-same-sex-marriage-plebiscite-is.html

PSEPHOLOGY, POLL WATCHING AND STRAY POLITICAL COMMENTARY/PHILOSOPHY FROM THE HOME OF HARE-CLARK. HEY, MAJOR PARTY POLITICIANS - DONALD TRUMP LOST THE POPULAR VOTE SO WHY ON EARTH SHOULD YOU CHANNEL HIM? COMMON SENSE DOES NOT LIVE HERE. Wednesday, July 29, 2015. A Same-Sex Marriage Plebiscite Is A Terrible Idea. Spending Money To Tell Us What We Already Know. We know from overseas experience that the gap between yes and no is smaller in ballot measures than in polling, but only modestly (about eight point...

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internationalelections.info internationalelections.info

International Elections: October 2014

http://www.internationalelections.info/2014_10_01_archive.html

Information about relevant elections and political activities around the world. Based in Australia. May be long and boring, apologies in advance. Comments are always open, but please try to be civil. Follow me on Twitter at @massivetotoro. Tuesday, October 28, 2014. A simple guide to electoral systems-Semi-proportional systems. Limited Vote/Single Non-Transferable Vote. Mixed-member systems are systems that combine elements of party-list and majoritarian systems. There are two types of mixed-member s...

internationalelections.info internationalelections.info

International Elections: May 2015

http://www.internationalelections.info/2015_05_01_archive.html

Information about relevant elections and political activities around the world. Based in Australia. May be long and boring, apologies in advance. Comments are always open, but please try to be civil. Follow me on Twitter at @massivetotoro. Wednesday, May 27, 2015. Electoral Systems of the world-South Korea (Part 2 of 2). The President had wide-ranging appointment powers. He could appoint the Prime Minister, the Cabinet, the Supreme Court, and members of the committee that decided the constitutionalit...

loadeddogma.blogspot.com loadeddogma.blogspot.com

Loaded Dogma: Short Kicks: Whoa-oh, onion skin

http://loadeddogma.blogspot.com/2015/03/short-kicks-whoa-oh-onion-skin.html

Serious political trolling from the other side. No, the other one. Tuesday, March 17, 2015. Short Kicks: Whoa-oh, onion skin. Still snowed under with work, so no time for longer pieces. I presume no domain expertise on Aboriginal matters so I can only sit back in my chair while reading pieces like this from the Oz. Or this from Piping Shrike. One aside from the Shrike stood out for me, though:. To a Scott Morrison succession. Abbott ate a raw onion in front of TV cameras. Has that ever been a thing?

loadeddogma.blogspot.com loadeddogma.blogspot.com

Loaded Dogma: March 2015

http://loadeddogma.blogspot.com/2015_03_01_archive.html

Serious political trolling from the other side. No, the other one. Tuesday, March 24, 2015. Club Troppo, Parishioners and High Broderism. When I first started taking interest in Australian poliblogs a few years ago, my first thought was that the Club Troppo. Web site sounded interesting, based as it was on the self-professed " political centrism. To Club Troppo in my early time as a poliblog watcher. That's for another post). The rest of the article attacks Labor for insufficient adherence to its own ide...

marktheballot.blogspot.com marktheballot.blogspot.com

Mark the Ballot: Betting market update

http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015/08/betting-market-update.html

Psephology by the numbers. Saturday, August 15, 2015. Extracting the odds from bookmaker webpages is a dark art. The bookies make it hard to extract this data. For each bookie I need a bespoke web-scraper. While these only take a dozen lines of python code; each scraper is different. Furthermore, they are fragile and need to be reconfigured often as the bookmakers modify their web delivery strategies. Anyway, I have now written six little scrapers, which I run every morning. Coalition Win Probability (%).

loadeddogma.blogspot.com loadeddogma.blogspot.com

Loaded Dogma: The zero lower bound government

http://loadeddogma.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-zero-lower-bound-government.html

Serious political trolling from the other side. No, the other one. Thursday, May 14, 2015. The zero lower bound government. Another budget has been and gone. In the hope that revenues will rebound naturally from historic lows under Swan. Labels: Abbott Disappointment Syndrome. Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom). For more blog stuff like Loaded Dogma. Promote your Page too. The zero lower bound government. Scott Morrison in opposition. Lawyers, Guns and Money.

loadeddogma.blogspot.com loadeddogma.blogspot.com

Loaded Dogma: July 2015

http://loadeddogma.blogspot.com/2015_07_01_archive.html

Serious political trolling from the other side. No, the other one. Friday, July 31, 2015. Gamergate, #cuckservative and racism against Adam Goodes. There is a line that can be drawn, a lineage that can be traced, between a number of recent primal screams emanating originally from shadowy ranks of white male recidivism. Unfortunately, this dilemma doesn't seem to worry many of those in the majority who are acting as useful idiots. In this context, it is supremely difficult to educate a certain type of you...

loadeddogma.blogspot.com loadeddogma.blogspot.com

Loaded Dogma: #Gamergate, #cuckservative and racism against Adam Goodes

http://loadeddogma.blogspot.com/2015/07/gamergate-cuckservative-and-racism.html

Serious political trolling from the other side. No, the other one. Friday, July 31, 2015. Gamergate, #cuckservative and racism against Adam Goodes. There is a line that can be drawn, a lineage that can be traced, between a number of recent primal screams emanating originally from shadowy ranks of white male recidivism. Unfortunately, this dilemma doesn't seem to worry many of those in the majority who are acting as useful idiots. In this context, it is supremely difficult to educate a certain type of you...

marktheballot.blogspot.com marktheballot.blogspot.com

Mark the Ballot: June 2015

http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_06_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Tuesday, June 30, 2015. A few new polls to report:. Moved a percentage point in the Coalition's direction between 13 May and 25 June to be 48 to 52 in Labor's favour. Moved one and a half percentage points in the Coalition's direction in late June compared with early June, to be 47 to 53 in Labor's favour. Which I don't feed into my aggregations) moved a percentage point in Labor's direction compared with the previous rolling weekly report to be 47 to 53 in Labor's favour.

marktheballot.blogspot.com marktheballot.blogspot.com

Mark the Ballot: January 2015

http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2015_01_01_archive.html

Psephology by the numbers. Friday, January 30, 2015. 5 February 2015 - added maxima, minima and endpoint statistics to the charts. Saturday, January 10, 2015. Leigh and Wolfers are not alone. Walsh, Dolfin and DiNardo wrote in 2009, "Our chief argument is that pre-election presidential polling is an activity more akin to forecasting next year's GDP or the winner of a sporting match than to scientific probability sampling" (p316). According to this theorem, the arithmetic means from a sufficiently large n...

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PSEPHOLOGY, POLL WATCHING AND STRAY POLITICAL COMMENTARY/PHILOSOPHY FROM THE HOME OF HARE-CLARK. THIS SITE SUPPORTS A PLEBISCITE ON BANNING PLEBISCITES. COMMON SENSE DOES NOT LIVE HERE. Tuesday, August 18, 2015. Poll Roundup: No Instant Damage After Shocking Week. 2PP Aggregate: 53.4 to Labor (unchanged). Labor would win election "held now" comfortably. Was especially acclaimed, though some thought the comparison harsh on Whitlam, who was at least always trying to actually do something. The Ipsos result ...

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